With two highly anticipated Game 7s on the NBA slate today, there’s a ton of prop bet value to be had. We highlight Devin Booker on the glass, as well as Jalen Brunson – who could get caught coughing the ball up against the Phoenix defense.
It’s seventh heaven for NBA betting tonight with two huge Game 7 do-or-die scenarios on the board, as the Celtics host the Bucks and the Mavericks visit the Suns for a ticket to the Conference Finals.
Games this big beg to bet beyond spreads and totals, which means digging into alternative betting odds on the NBA playoffs. We’re rounding up the matchups and possible storylines that play out in those Game 7, giving away our favorite free NBA player gear picks for Sunday, May 15.
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I know it’s a lot Jrue
Last week I played an Under on Jrue Holiday’s points total for Game 5 and got called out for it on Twitter, and rightly so. My bet was to bank on an ineffective and tired vacation only to find yourself cold on the road against Boston’s stingy defense.
However, what I didn’t take into account is that beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Milwaukee Bucks really don’t have anyone else to score basketball consistently. Holiday finished with 24 points on a rough 9-for-24 shooting effort (4-for-7 from deep). I ate crow while taking a hit in the wallet.
Holiday followed that up with a 7-for-17 (3-for-10 on three) night and just 17 points overall in Game 6, which reduced his point prop for today’s Game 7 to 20.5 ( more than -118).
Those 17 field goal attempts last time out were the fewest Holiday had amassed in a game in this series, having averaged just over 23 shots per game in the first five outings. Milwaukee desperately needs a bigger night from its veteran guard in Game 7 and its pre-Game 6 pace has its projected output around 21.8 points for Sunday morning.
Holiday threw 10 shots from beyond the arc in Game 6 and could continue to take those long-range looks, telling the media the Bucks need to find ways to get more 3-pointers against a happy Celtics defense to change who packs the paint.
With the season on the line, the defending NBA champions will turn to their vets and Holiday will have plenty of chances to top his point total today.
To take: Jrue Holiday Over 20.5 points (-118)
Covers NBA betting analysis
Booker on the boards
The Phoenix Suns topped the glass in this conference semifinal series with the Dallas Mavericks, posting a 54.7% rebound rate. And it’s not just the Suns’ frontcourt that’s crushing the boards. Keepers like Devin Booker also got into the rebound rage.
Booker has posted rebound totals of eight and seven in the past two games and is averaging 5.7 rebounds for the series. The 6-foot-5 Kentucky product also doesn’t have to fight for boxouts on most misses, as Dallas’ small-ball spin is parked on the perimeter and many 3-point misses bounce long and straight into Booker’s hands.
Defense is Phoenix’s primary focus heading into Game 7. Last time these teams played at the Footprint Center, the Suns controlled Dallas just 38 percent shooting from the floor and just 8 for 32 from beyond the line. arc, leaving a lot of bounces. to enter. The Game 7 total has fallen to 205 and with both teams relying on the defense to get the job done, the bookies are expecting a fair share of misses.
Booker’s rebound total for Game 7 ranges between 4.5 (over -138) and 5.5 (over +115), depending on where you bet. Shop for the lower total and lay down some extra wood for the thinner rebound prop.
To take: Devin Booker Over 4.5 rebounds (-138)
Banking on Brunson’s blunders
Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson has done a pretty good job limiting his mistakes, considering how company he’s keeping on the other side of the floor in this conference semifinal.
The Suns are among the best defensive clubs in the NBA and impose 14.5 turnovers per game on the season (#7). As for this series, Phoenix’s defensive intensity — or Dallas’ sloppiness — has been greatest inside the Footprint Center, where the Suns have forced an average of 15 turnovers to just 11.2 in the three games to Dallas.
That decisive split showed up in Brunson’s turnover stats for the series, totaling eight giveaways on those desert trips (2.7 TBs per game) to just three home turnovers, including a clean sheet in game 6.
Brunson is critical to the Mavericks’ success on offense, with his dribbling offense crumbling the Suns’ defense and scoring vital points in the paint. He will continue to play major minutes and see the second most touches behind Luka Doncic, so the potential for two or more turnovers is always high – especially in a match 7 scenario under pressure.
Betting on the 1.5 turnovers for Brunson is by no means a knock on his skills, but rather a value bet on a prop that has a pretty good chance of cashing in, knowing that Phoenix will throw the sink. cooking on Brunson tonight.
To take: Jalen Brunson More than 1.5 rotations (-110)
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