Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from leveraging them directly in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools to help make money betting on player props. For this article, we’re using the odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where value can be found tonight.
The prop betting experience at FanDuel Sportsbook just got more fun. You can track your player’s props with real-time updates and easily place props in-game.
Please note that the betting lines and our throwing players may change throughout the day after the publication of this article.
D’Angelo Russell Over 16.5 points (-114)
The numberFire pattern suggests we’re going strong above D’Angelo Russell’s point prop (16.5).
Our algorithm projects Russell for 19.5 points on 16.1 field goal attempts, giving him about a 74.5% chance of passing his prop. Even at odds of -114, that’s a lot of value.
Russell, in the series, averaged just 13.0 points in 33.8 minutes while making 13.0 field goal attempts per game. Specifically, he had 10, 11, 22, 10 and 12 points. The difference in the 22-point match? Volume. He had 21 shot attempts in that game and no more than 12 in any other.
We’re just projecting him for higher volume of fire tonight – plus better efficiency. Russell is shooting 39.3% on three in the series but just 32.3% from the field overall, compared to regular-season spreads of 34.0% and 41.1%, respectively.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists (-134)
This line seems way too low.
Karl-Anthony Towns is projected for 3.9 assists tonight in 35.7 minutes, which equates to 0.11 assists per minute. That’s the same as his four-year average, his season average, and his average if you use the expected assist rate from potential assists.
Towns’ assists per game have been cut in half (1.8 in this series from 3.6 in the regular season), so what’s the problem? Teammate conversion.
Only 32.1% of Towns’ potential assists in this series have been converted into assists, compared to a team average of 53.0% on the season (and 53.1% is also the NBA average). This anticipated regression indicates additional helpers in the city helper column.
At his projected 3.9 assists, he should be considered around 74.7% likely to top that prop.
Ja Morant Less than 8.5 rebounds (-130)
Ja Morant rebounded really, really well in the playoffs.
He averages 8.8 boards per game and 0.24 per minute. That’s well above his regular-season numbers: 5.7 boards per game and 0.17 per minute.
His career average rate is actually just 0.14.
What is changing here? Rebound opportunities.
Morant is shooting nearly the same rate of rebound opportunities (57.9%) as he did in the regular season (57.7%) but is much more active on the glass right now.
He sees 15.2 rebound chances per game and should therefore have 8.8 rebounds per game. In the regular season, he averaged just 9.8 rebound chances per game (for 5.7 expected rebounds per game, in line with his actual rate of 5.6).
So we should love the finishedto the right?
Well, only if we really expect Morant to have that many chances game after game. He currently ranks 11th in the playoffs in rebound chance per game, which is just abnormal for what he’s done in the regular season.
Morant also averaged just 5.5 rebounds per game in regular season meetings with the Minnesota Timberwolves. — 0.16 per minute.