Editor’s Note: The Indiana Pacers have ruled out Myles Turner for Monday’s game against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to illness. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.
We went 3-1 for props over the weekend which is pretty good! Let’s see if we can build on that tonight with these three props. The overs have been hitting for us lately, so let’s get back to the pits tonight.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to props posted on a variety of sportsbooks. Below I have presented three prop bets that I play, the case for every bet, and the best books to find odds on these player props.
NBA player choice and accessories
Joel Embiid, Over 38.5 PTS + REB + AST (-105)
|76ers against magic||76ers -14|
|time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After missing 10 straight games because of Covid, Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers roster with the second most minutes he has ever played in a game. This is a bit surprising as we normally see a light minute restriction still on Embiid. He played 45 minutes in a double overtime loss to the Timberwolves and finished the game with 42 points, 14 rebounds, three assists and he also made 16 of 21 free throws.
The minutes of the last game are a little scary for tonight, but it’s such a great place for Embiid that I can’t ignore this prop. It’s probably the riskiest accessory I have today, but this game is so tasty.
I like a lot of Embiid props tonight, but the most valuable prop was taking points, rebounds and assists. The Orlando Magic are ranked 29th in the defensive standings this season, allowing 110.9 points per game. They also rank 20th in rebound percentage, allowing for 47.2 rebounds per game, which is the seventh highest score in the league.
Despite this game having the lowest total on the slate tonight with 205 points, the 76ers are implied for 109.5 points. These are ridiculous 14 point favorites. Risk of rash is definitely a factor, but this match is amazing for going up against big men, especially when it’s monsters like Embiid. This showdown could get even better if Magic’s starting center Mo Bamba is absent.
This accessory for Embiid looks weak, but there is a lot of risk with it as usual. However, even if he only plays in the three quarters because this game is getting out of hand, I still think he could get there given how dominant he should be in this home game. I would even bet up to 40.5 tonight.
This is the best Embiid accessory I see right now, but I wouldn’t blame you if you liked any other accessory. Either way, Embiid should be enjoying the Magic tonight.
Myles Turner, over 6.5 rebounds (-135)
|Timberwolves vs. Pacers||Wood Wolves -3|
|time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Minnesota Timberwolves are riding right now as they welcome the Indiana Pacers into the Target Center. The Timberwolves have won six of their last seven games while the Pacers have lost five of their last eight.
The Timberwolves are a terrible rebounding team this season! One of the main reasons Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game, his career low. This is his first season averaging less than 10.5 rebounds per game. The Timberwolves sit last in defensive rebound percentage. They allowed a record 12.8 offensive rebounds per game, which should bode well for the very athletic Myles Turner.
It’s also a prime spot for Domantas Sabonis, but his playing time has been ubiquitous lately. Rick Carlisle plays too much with his minutes. He’s logged about 20 minutes for no random reason in two of their last six games. I’d much rather trust Turner to get over 6.5 rebounds, before trusting Sabonis to get over 10.5. Sabonis still leads the Pacers with 11.4 rebounds per game, but Turner isn’t too far behind at 7.6 per game.
Another factor that could be at play tonight is the questionable status of the Timberwolves’ two power forwards. Jarred Vanderbilt and Jaden McDaniels are both questionable about playing tonight due to illness. It could make this Timberwolves team even thinner in the zone before they already are. Turner is also questionable with an illness, and you can monitor each player’s status on our FantasyLabs newsfeed.
Honestly, I would prefer that number go up to 7.5 rebounds just to get better value on Turner tonight because I love that rebound point for him so much. However, I will happily take it to 6.5 on DraftKings. Turner should have no problem cleaning the glass overnight in this fantastic game.
Damian Lillard, more than 6.5 assists (+105)
|Jazz vs. Trail Blazers||Jazz -7.5|
|time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Last accessory of the evening, I will provide juice “> juice with this Damian Lillard on 6.5 assists against the Utah Jazz. Our player prop model screened Lillard for 8.5 assists tonight, making this the most valuable prop on the board.
It’s no longer a secret now, the Trail Blazers have been awful on the road this season. They are 1-9 away against 9-1 at home. This is why this gap favors Utah Jazz so strongly at 7.5 points. However, if you look at the total, it’s pretty high at 223, which is tied for the high of the slate right now. This fast-paced environment should provide plenty of opportunities for this to end.
The Jazz are eighth in the defensive standings this season and 20th in pace. That’s why it’s a little surprising that this total is so high, but I like it! The Jazz also gave up the fifth fewest points at 103.3 per game while also giving up the third best score for assists with just 21.4 per game. So why take this accessory?
Damian Lillard has collected over 6.5 assists in six of his last eight games and in 13 of his 19 games played this season. He failed to get less than six assists in just two games. Lillard averages 7.9 assists per game, leading the Trail Blazers by a landslide.
Norman Powell is sidelined tonight with an injury, hampering Lillard’s number of assists. However, I think the emergence of Anfernee Simons, who averages a career-high 11.9 points per game out of 9.8 field goal attempts per game, mitigates the risk of Powell being eliminated.
Lillard ranks seventh in the league in minutes played with 35.9 per game. He’s known for his career and plays heavy minutes so even if this game gets out of hand I don’t think Lillard will suffer as much from his minutes played tonight. The best value for this prop is on DraftKings right now, which makes it easy because the other two props I provided are there as well.
If luckily this prop drops to 5.5 assists, I would absolutely hammer it. However, I like the juice he provides at 6.5 assists. Let’s go get those Lady pennies tonight!
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