It’s weekend basketball time. Hope everyone had a great week and are ready to make some money this weekend.
We have some big games tonight in the NBA, headlining the Eastern Conference with the Nets against the Bulls and the Bucks against the Heat. I have provided an accessory for these two games for your viewing pleasure.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to props posted on a variety of sportsbooks. Below I have presented three prop bets that I play, the case for every bet, and the best books to find odds on these player props.
NBA player choice and accessories
Nikola Vucevic, more than 31.5 points, rebounds and assists (-105)
|Bulls against fillets||Nets -3|
|time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The top two teams in the Eastern Conference headline Saturday night’s game list. The Nets beat the East at 16-6, while Chicago is not far behind at 15-8. It should be a great game.
Nikola Vucevic has really stepped up his production lately. Vucevic is averaging 28.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game in his last two games, scoring double-digit goals in every game while averaging 5.5-3 points per game, dropping 11 of 15. from downtown during this period. The big man is connected, to say the least.
It’s a great game for Vucevic as the Nets play back to back. They rank 25th in rebound percentage this season as Vucevic should have no problem playing LaMarcus Aldridge and company. The Nets allowed the third-highest number of offensive rebounds at 11.2 per game. Vucevic leads the Bulls with an average of 1.8 offensive rebounds per game. He should clean the glass in this game against an undersized and aging Nets frontcourt.
The total for this game is the highest on the slate with 222 points. The Nets rank sixth in Pace this season, while the Bulls rank 13th. We know Vucevic’s points and rebounds will always be there, but he’s also averaging 4.1 assists per game, a career-high. He’s had three or more assists in every game this season except three and two of those three were very early in the season.
I am very interested in a lot of Vucevic accessories tonight, but this one impressed me the most. I also really like to take the accessory made over 1.5 to 3 points which is equally priced on DraftKings. Vucevic is clicking through all of the cylinders right now and it should be a fantastic playing environment where the Bulls can lean on their cross. I would bet this accessory up to 33.5 tonight.
Tyler Herro, over 22.5 points (odds)
|Heat vs. Bucks||Dollars -6.5|
|time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat looks incredible, until you dive into the injury situation. The Bucks will likely be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who doubts he will play. The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Markieff Morris. The actors will have to shine tonight.
The Bucks defense takes a major blow without Giannis on the ground. The sample size is small, but in two games without Giannis on the field, the Bucks have a defensive rating of 116.2. That’s a drastic difference from the Bucks playing with Giannis where they have a 106.9 defensive rating. I expect Jrue Holiday to play a bit of defense against Herro tonight, but I’m not worried.
If you like a little homecoming tale, Herro was an outstanding basketball player at Whitnall High School, which is a suburb of Milwaukee. He has two brothers still in high school who are playing for Whitnall at the moment. I imagine Herro will try to put on a show tonight for his friends and family.
There might be a better number and more value on Herro’s Points Accessory tonight, so be sure to shop around. Right now the only available place I see is on FanDuel. I think the 22.5 points are a little steep considering his recent production, but he should have so many opportunities tonight to overcome that. I’d rather get into that number now, before it potentially increases.
CJ McCollum, less than 9.5 rebounds and assists (-145)
|Celtics vs. Trail Blazers||Celtics -1.5|
|time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Portland Trail Blazers are wiped out with injuries in their backcourt right now. Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons are both out for the game tonight, likely leaving the starting backcourt to CJ McCollum and Dennis Smith Jr.
Lillard has missed three games this season as the Trail Blazers have lost 1-2 in those games. They lost to the Nuggets by 29 points and the Spurs by 31 points. Their only victory was against the 4-18 Pistons. I’m a little surprised that the Celtics are only favored by a bucket tonight, especially if Jaylen Brown is back.
In the three games Lillard has missed this season, McCollum has had to take on a bigger scoring role. He is averaging 21.7 points per game and has a 32% use rate without Lillard in the roster, up from 20.3 points per game and a 25.8% use rate with Lillard in the roster. ‘alignment. He also saw a decrease in minutes played due to breakouts against Spurs and Nuggets.
The biggest hit McCollum has taken is with his peripherals. He averages more than one assist per game and one less rebound per game without Lillard. In those three games, McCollum is averaging just 3.3 assists per game and 3.3 rebounds per game. The Celtics sit eighth in the defensive standings this season while playing at the ninth slowest pace. It’s definitely a tough game.
There is definitely more value if you take props with less than 4.5 assists or less than 4.5 rebounds instead of tying them together. I like both too tonight. Either way, McCollum can score as much as he wants. I think they will have a hard time if his shot is missed and a blowout is still on the table despite playing at home where they are 10-2 this season. I would also bet at 8.5.
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