Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from leveraging them directly in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.
For this article, we’re using the odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where value can be found tonight.
The prop betting experience at FanDuel Sportsbook just got more fun. You can track your player’s props with real-time updates and easily place props in-game.
Note: the betting lines and our throwing players may change throughout the day after the publication of this article.
LaMelo Ball Over 6.5 assists (-102)
The hardest player props to target are wild props, and LaMelo Ball’s assist prop is still that.
In just his six three games, he’s topped eight assists three times and missed by four assists three times. I’m glad it’s not my job to assign a value to this accessory.
At this current mark, however, Ball has an implied 50.5% chance of making seven or more assists tonight. I’ll take over at this rate.
Ball is projected for 7.4 assists in the numberFire pattern, which has come as a bit of a shock considering this downturn for his Hornets. That’s fair, though, considering his rate of 8.58 assists per 36 minutes for the entire season, and Charlotte even misses Kelly Oubre. in COVID-19 protocols.
The only concern I have for Ball’s potential to reach seven cents? His trainer. Ball has been inexplicably held under 30 minutes in four of his last seven games as Charlotte’s top player. He did, however, deliver at least seven assists in three of them despite the reduced playing time.
Christian Wood Over 1.5 three-point marks (+130)
+130 odds on a prop bet that could realistically hit in the first quarter? I’m in.
Two triples in the first stanza would be a stellar start for Christian Wood, but that mark is certainly good value given his implied 43.5% hit chance. There’s a total of 232.0 points for the Rockets and Spurs contest in San Antonio tonight, and Wood, who has accounted for 14.8% of Houston’s total points this year, should have a solid hand there- inside.
Wood is attempting 4.7 three-pointers per game, and this season he’s had 1.6. This mark of 34.1% was at least 37.8% each of the last two seasons for C-Wood, so a positive regression should be on the horizon.
The biggest issue with Wood’s prop bets this year has been his team’s competitiveness. He only averages 30.8 minutes per game in a full-time role due to how often Houston gets knocked down. With just a 5.5 point gap against San Antonio, he can hopefully see his full share of court time.
With a full workload, Wood should be near that prop he’s passed in 19 of the 35 games he’s played this season with at least 30 minutes of time on the court.
Robert Williams Over 9.5 rebounds (-114)
I try not to choose three “overs”, but the first three lines of the day fell on this side.
Robert Williams is tasked with scoring double-digit rebounds to surpass his projected total on FanDuel Sportsbook – a feat he has achieved in 15 of his 32 games this season. He’s also been getting flustered lately, posting double-digit charts in 7 of his last 11 contests.
The numberFire model had Williams at 10.1 rebounds as the median projection despite a tough matchup with Indiana. The reason why? Celtics will miss Marcus Smart due to a thigh injury, and Williams is averaging 11.03 rebounds per 36 minutes with the solid rebounder at ground guard.
Williams struggled against Al Horford for playing all season, but he won the most recent battles. He has posted at least 32 minutes in five straight games. There’s no doubt he’ll be on the court a lot considering the Pacers have one of the Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner in the field almost at all times.