Nba player

3 NBA player prop bets to target on Wednesday 10/20/21

Player accessories can be useful in a variety of ways, from their direct use in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.

Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.

For this article, we’re using the odds provided on FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where we can be valuable tonight.

Please note that the betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after posting this article.

Miles Bridges Less than 15.5 Points (-110)

Miles Bridges could easily have a bigger role with the Charlotte Hornets to start the season given their off-season departures. This should allow him to increase his average per game by 12.7 points a year ago.

Our model says not so fast. At least as far as its prop points are concerned.

The algorithm sees that Bridges is a bit overvalued at 15.5 points above / below; he projects Bridges for 13.5 points over 28.6 minutes.

The Indiana Pacers finished as a league average defense a year ago by defensive rating, so it’s hard to project a big bump to Bridges’ per-minute expectations on a game-lone basis.

At its projected 13.5 point baseline, my simulation model sees Bridges staying below 16 points with a 60.1% clip. That would suggest a rating of -151 on the underside rather than the -110 we can get at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jalen Green More than 2.5 assists (+102)

NBA debut for Jalen Green comes with extra cash opportunity on his support number if we believe he can get three assists in 30.2 minutes projected against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

As the Houston RocketsThe goalie should be able to rack up points in the NBA, he still managed 2.3 assists in 28.1 minutes in preseason (a sample of four games).

Minnesota allowed the second most assists per game last season, which may tell us about defensive strength but also what tendencies are allowed.

Our model anticipates a baseline projection of 3.3 assists over 30.2 minutes for the rookie.

The simulations would then expect it to be 66.8% likely to hit the top.

Richaun Holmes over 7.5 rebounds (-102)

Richaun Holmes’ rebound count sits at 8.6 tonight, making him a pretty easy recommendation overall.

Holmes and the Kings of Sacramento take on a Portland Trail Blazers team in a game with an over / under 234.0 points, which can give many chances to clean the glass.

Holmes last season had a strong rebounds per minute rate of 0.28 which would take it to 8.2 with the projected 29.3 minute load for tonight’s game.

Ultimately, Holmes estimates that 62.5% are likely to reach over 8 rebounds in tonight’s game. That would mean we could bet this one even at -167 odds.


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