Nba player

3 NBA player prop bets to target on Monday 2/14/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from leveraging them directly in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.

Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools to help make money betting on player props. For this article, we’re using the odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where value can be found tonight.

The prop betting experience at FanDuel Sportsbook just got more fun. You can track your player’s props with real-time updates and easily place props in-game.

Please note that the betting lines and our throwing players may change throughout the day after the publication of this article.

Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 rebounds (+114)

Let’s start with a plus-money option on a bouncy prop with Keldon Johnson.

Our model likes Johnson for 6.7 rebounds tonight, which would normally put his territory into consideration before even factoring in that the plus is +114.

Johnson is averaging 6.0 boards per game and — at an average NBA rebound conversion rate — should be averaging 5.9, so he’s pretty set there in terms of expectations.

Even though the Chicago Bulls are a good rebounding team, there is wiggle room on his baseline to get to six boards.

At a base projection of 6.7 rebounds, Johnson rates a 65.9 percent chance of going here. You’ll take this at +114 all day.

Mike Conley Over 12.5 points (-116)

numberFire’s pattern is for Mike Conley to hit at least a dozen bakers tonight in the points column.

Conley’s median projection is 16.0 points.

Even if we were to use his four-year shooting splits (including a 39.1% three-point percentage and 52.4% effective field goal percentage, which are lower than his in-season rates of 42.3% and 55.8%, respectively) through his shooting volume projection tonight (5.6 two-point attempts, 6.8 threes and 2.6 free throws), he would be projected for a line of basis of 15.5 points.

Using the bottom base for argument, my simulation model sees Conley as about 72.0% likely to hit the top.

This is well above the -116 odd implications (53.7%).

Reggie Jackson Under 19.5 points (-122)

Although the odds on this prop are quite high at -122, the value is there regardless.

Reggie Jackson is projected for 17.5 points on 32.0 minutes (0.55 points per minute), in fact higher than his in-season rate of 0.54 and comfortably above his four-year rate of 0, 52.

Adjusting Jackson’s projected shot volume for his four-year splits, he’d be projected for 17.6 points, still short of the 20 he needs to cash in a top ticket.

The Golden State Warriors are a league average defense against opposing backyards, so we can’t increase the efficiency projections either.

We can consider that Jackson has a 68.0% chance of staying here, given basic assumptions.