Player accessories can be useful in a variety of ways, from their direct use in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.
For this article, we’re using the odds provided on FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where we can be valuable tonight.
Please note that the betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after the publication of this article.
Pat Connaughton on 5.5 rebounds (-128)
Pat Connaughton’s rebounds by game number (4.7) won’t do enough to sell you here, but that’s okay as player props are way more than per game averages.
Connaughton has recorded 3, 4 and 7 rebounds so far on a per game average of 31.4 minutes in three games, and the numberFire model anticipates a slight boost for him tonight (32.3) in that department. .
Along with that, Connaughton should actually have a great rebound route as he averages 9.0 rebound chances per game.
At a league-average conversion rate, he should get around 5.3 rebounds per game, so at his projection of minutes for tonight plus that rate, he should get 5.5 rebounds.
Our model is even higher overall on its bounce expectations and projects it for 6.5 boards tonight.
Using this as a baseline, my simulation model would expect Connaughton to hit 6 rebounds at a rate of around 62.7% (suggesting a rating of -168 above).
Devonte ‘Graham Under 16.5 points (-112)
We’ll have a hard time justifying this prop, given that numberFire’s projection for Devonte ‘Graham’s points output is only 14.9 of his projected 29.6 minutes.
Graham is, so far, averaging 16.7 points over three games and is coming off a 1-for-10 game beyond the arc, which could suggest a positive regression in the shooting department. But he had been 10 of 17 (58.8%) of three in his first two games, which balanced things out.
Overall, Graham is shooting 37.7% from the field and 55.4% from an actual field goal percentage point of view.
The field goal percentage is almost identical to the 37.6% career rate he has had, but the actual field goal percentage is significantly higher than his career rate (49.3%). Even if we remove his ineffective first season, he is at 50.2% of his career with the effective field goal percentage.
We’re still predicting him for 16.8 field goal attempts with 8.3 three-pointers, but for most of his long-term effectiveness tonight, which should leave him close to 17 points.
Jaden McDaniels Over 6.5 points (-120)
Here’s another place where projecting the points at numberFire gives us a pretty obvious value from a basic perspective.
Jaden McDaniels set to score 7.2 points tonight in 29.6 minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans.
McDaniels is averaging just 4.0 points per game in two games, but is expected to experience an increase in workload (as he averaged just 26.4 minutes in his first two games).
Our model expects her to make 7.0 shooting attempts tonight.
McDaniels has yet to reach the free throw line or make a three (out of just three attempts), which hampered the performance of his limited shooting attempts (10 total field goals).
My simulation model – using numberFire’s median projections as a basis – expects McDaniels to score at least 7 points 59.1% of the time, suggesting -144 odds above.