Player accessories can be useful in a variety of ways, from their direct use in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we’ll be focusing on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided on FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where value can be obtained tonight.
The experience of betting on accessories on FanDuel Sportsbook just got even more fun. You can track your player’s props with real-time updates and easily place props in the game.
Note: the betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after posting this article.
Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 points (-110)
Spurs are down in players due to COVID-19 protocols, which means a much safer role for Jakob Poeltl.
Poeltl has played at least 30 minutes in San Antonio’s last two games without Keldon Johnson, and Johnson’s absence is significant enough for Poeltl’s sheet music production. Poeltl is averaging 15.97 points per 36 minutes with Johnson off the field this season.
The tall man has been around his accessory with regularity recently. He has scored at least 10 points in eight of his last nine games. That’s despite seeing less than 30 minutes in five of those same nine games. With just 8 and 11 points in both competitions without Johnson since Friday, he has yet to cross that mark in this current roster setup, but it’s coming.
The Knicks’ overall defensive rating (109.7; tied for 10th in the NBA) is not threatening, therefore quality speaking time for Poeltl could lead to a healthy double-double in his new role. numberFire has its median projection at 11.5 points on the point, but I’ll bet at least 12 at an even odds of -110.
Tobias Harris More than 4.5 assists (+114)
Tobias Harris let me down last week in Orlando at that same note, but it seems to be the exception, not the rule.
Harris recorded four assists in that contest, which was the only time in his last five games he hasn’t managed five assists. The reason is obvious: the absence of Tyrese Maxey in COVID-19 protocols.
Harris and Seth Curry have a timeshare as the Philadelphia floor general in this situation. Harris averaged 4.98 assists every 36 minutes in this ground condition, and Curry averaged 4.80.
The only concern for Harris would be the limited minutes due to a blowout with a 12.0 point gap. Still, with the Rockets both the best overall team in pace (103.2) and the last overall team in defensive rating, it’s not impossible for Harris to end his night with more than five assists in three shifts. .
With an implied probability of 46.7% reflected by +114 odds, Harris’ recent trend looks better than a 50-50 proposition.
Marcus Smart Over 3.5 rebounds (+104)
One of Marcus Smart’s greatest abilities since being drafted has been seen as his ability to bounce back as a keeper.
Even with Indiana a good team on the boards (11th in estimated rebound), Smart’s 3.5-rebound prop on Monday was the one who just jumped off the FanDuel Sportsbook roll.
This season, Smart is averaging 4.13 rebounds every 36 minutes. It has come through quite a turbulent production recently. Since Dec. 1, he’s registered two or fewer rebounds on eight occasions, but he’s also registered more than five rebounds in eight games.
Oddly enough, the Pacers gave the leaders the fifth most rebounds per game (7.06). Indiana has two big strong rebounds (Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner), so it makes sense that, via box-outs, more boards are routed to the backcourt.
With the plus-money odds here, bettors think Smart is more likely to land three or fewer tables than four or more. Count me as a vote the other way around.