Player accessories can be useful in a variety of ways, from their direct use in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.
For this article, we’re using the odds provided on FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where we can be valuable tonight.
Please note that the betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after the publication of this article.
Domantas Sabonis Over 16.5 points (-122)
Domantas Sabonis and Indiana Pacers draw Charlotte Hornets, a team that ranks 25th in estimated defensive rating.
Not only are the Hornets not a good defense, they’re also outperforming lately. In their last 10 games, based on the dispersion of shots they allowed opponents, the Hornets should have allowed 114.6 points per game if the opponents had shot at the league average rate. In fact, they allowed “only” 111.9 over this period.
The Hornets also allow 22.1 points every 48 minutes to opposing players in the first zone, who are 27th in the NBA.
numberFire projects Sabonis for 18.2 points. My simulation model, assuming a baseline of 18.2 points, would see Sabonis at 58.1% likely to exceed this prop and reach 17 points or more.
Zach LaVine Under 25.5 points (-112)
Zach LaVinestarts off very well this season.
The Chicago Bulls guard averaged 26.2 points per game in 35.2 minutes per game. Its good.
Shooting efficiency is on the rise, which is to be expected with such promising scoring numbers.
His percentage of effective field goal reached 56.7%. This compares to a four-season rate of 54.8%. He’s also shooting 87.5% from the line, up from 83.0% in the past four seasons combined.
Overall, the numberFire model projects LaVine for 23.5 points over 34.5 minutes tonight against the Denver Nuggets, who are in the top 10 for points per 48 minutes awarded to opposing players in the backcourt. Denver is also sixth in estimated defensive rating.
LaVine, at his projected shot volume tonight (but his four-year shooting averages as opposed to his season averages), would only be projected for 23.1 points.
Gary Trent Jr. Over 17.5 points (-112)
Gary Trent Jr.’s points-per-game average (17.1) is lower than his prop, and numberFire’s model is projecting him for just 17.6 points, but it’s the top that is more valuable tonight than below.
Toronto Raptors are against the Sacramento Kings, who are only 21st in the estimated defensive standings and are the last in the NBA in points per 48 minutes awarded to opposing players in the backcourt (26.8 – with just one other team also allowing at least 23.6 points per 48 ). It’s a very exploitable match.
Trent Jr. almost matches his shooting divisions over four seasons this season (an effective field goal percentage of 53.2% this season versus 52.8% in the past four years combined), so he is not in line for a big step back in the efficiency department.
So this one comes down to shot volume and pairing – not even a shot regression hope.
Again, Trent Jr. is thrown by numberFire for 17.6 points but would hit 18.0 on his four-year efficiency on projected fire volume.
If we expect the efficiency to increase given the cake game, then that’s all it takes to get it over 18 points.