Player accessories can be useful in a variety of ways, from their direct use in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.
For this article, we’re using the odds provided on FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where we can be valuable tonight.
Please note that the betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after posting this article.
Evan Fournier More than 2.5 assists (-120)
We will have an Evan Fournier rematch tonight against the Orlando Magic, and I’m not going to lie: it always helps with excessive betting.
But the real reason to go this route is that our projections at numberFire indicate a value on the Fournier assist accessory.
Our model predicts that Fournier will reach 3.5 assists in 33.9 minutes against the Magic, a team that ranks 29th in estimated defensive after their opener.
The Knicks goalie had three assists in a double overtime game on opening night and had 5.0 assists during his time on the field.
My simulation model – based on historical result ranges and a projected overnight player rate – expects Fournier to exceed this prop 66.2% of the time.
Royce O’Neale over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
Royce O’Neale managed 6 rebounds in 28.1 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Utah Jazz‘first game of the season, and he’s forecasting a similar minute rate (29.5) tonight, according to our algorithm.
Along with this nearly 30-minute projection, O’Neale is tied to a rebounding 6.2 projection against the Sacramento Kings., a team that is 27th in estimated rebound rate after 48 minutes of action this season.
O’Neale was averaging 6.9 boards per game a year ago over 32.2 minutes, numbers he is predicting tonight.
My simulation model shows O’Neale hitting 6 rebounds 59.1% of the time, suggesting the top rating should be -144.
Carmelo Anthony Under 12.5 points (-116)
Carmelo Anthony’s early return to the Los Angeles Lakers was a bit dull for sure.
The former scoring champion’s first game with the Lake Show led to 9 field goal attempts and 9 points in 26.1 minutes.
We can’t just copy and paste this result for every game afterwards, of course, but it should be noted that the Lakers / Phoenix Suns play total tends to go down, and that is not ideal for players exceeding their point props.
Anthony gets a benchmark projection of 10.2 points, according to the numberFire algorithm, over 21.4 minutes.
He’s also scheduled for just 7.6 shot attempts in that span, so he should either outperform his shot attempt projection or turn in a super-elite efficiency game against the Suns to score a dozen bakers. .
My model says Anthony only has a 34.8% chance of going over this total, so the underside looks valuable until we get a rating of -187.