Player accessories can be useful in a variety of ways, from their direct use in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy basketball.
Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props.
For this article, we’re using the odds provided on FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where we can be valuable tonight.
Please note that the betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after posting this article.
Doug McDermott Over 10.5 points (-110)
The numberFire model is loving Doug McDermott’s dot accessory tonight. It is projected for 11.2 points over 27.4 minutes (0.41 points per minute).
While his rate of 9.6 points per game makes minus feel like a solid game, his projected shot volume (3.3 two-point attempts, 5.0 three-point attempts, and 1.6 free throw) to its four-year shooting averages would lead to a projection of 11.4 points, or even a hue higher than what the numberFire model projects outright.
That’s even before adjusting for a solid clash with the Orlando Magic, which ranks 27th in estimated defensive to start the season.
McDermott, at his baseline of 11.2 points, estimates (via my simulation model) that 57.1% are likely to exceed. We could bet more down to -133.
Anthony Edwards Under 24.5 points (-108)
There’s a rematch tonight between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Los Angeles Clippers.. The teams met on Wednesday, leading to a 126-115 victory for the Clippers.
In this game, Anthony Edwards has scored 28 points on 21 shots, and he’s averaging 23.9 points per game this season – tied for where the prop is placed.
However, when Edwards hit his 28 points with excellent shooting volume, his effective field goal percentage was 59.5%, up more than 10 points from his career rate of 48.8%.
This season, his effective field goal percentage is actually 48.7%, so we can’t ignore the rookie season at all. The efficiency is the same.
If we use his projected shot volume (11.7 two-point attempts, 8.0 three-point attempts, and 3.8 free throw attempts) at his career save rate, he would be projected at 22.2 points. . The actual projection of numberFire for him is 22.6 points.
Even at the highest rate of 22.6, my simulation model assumes that Edwards has a 57.1% chance of staying below 25 points.
Jaden McDaniels over 3.5 rebounds (-118)
Staying with this game, there is an additional opportunity for Jaden McDaniels’ rebound total.
Although McDaniels recovered just one bounce on Wednesday in nearly 29 minutes of action, numberFire expects a… bounce… for him in this statistic column.
He’s scheduled for 4.8 boards over 29.6 minutes tonight and is expected to come back close to his career average of 0.15 rebounds per minute. It would be against 0.03 against them on Wednesday. It won’t stick.
The Clippers sit last in terms of estimated bounce rate (44.8%), so it makes sense that McDaniels will come back with a better rebound performance tonight.
My simulation model considers McDaniels likely to exceed 71.9%.